India Faces Driest Monsoon Since 2009 Due to El Niño
India Faces Driest Monsoon Since 2009 Due to El Niño
IN · Published Sep 19, 2026
India's monsoon season is experiencing a significant deficit, with rainfall running 15% below normal as of mid-September 2026, according to Dr Christian W. The season, which is nearing its end, is on track to be the driest since
Experts predict the national monsoon rainfall deficit will remain between 13% and 16%. A potential tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal could bring some relief, but any improvement is expected to be marginal. The CRUCIAL prediction platform estimates a 68% chance of the monsoon ending with a deficit between 10% and 20%. This rainfall shortage is raising concerns about its impact on food inflation in India.

Impact & Risks

The monsoon deficit is likely to exacerbate food inflation in India, which could affect millions of households. Reduced rainfall impacts agricultural productivity, particularly for crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds, which are staples in the Indian diet. A prolonged deficit could lead to higher food prices, straining household budgets and potentially increasing economic stress for vulnerable populations. The situation is particularly concerning as India relies heavily on monsoonal rains for its agricultural output.

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